Shirley, You Can't Believe the New Unemployment Numbers

The new unemployment number is out. Magically, it happens to be just under the traditional figure at which presidents can't get re-elected of 8%.

It's at 7.8%

How convenient.

We're supposed to believe this when the most recent GDP numbers show an anemic 1.3% increase?

We're supposed to believe  this when the U-6 number remained unchanged at 14.7%?

We're supposed to believe this when factory orders just went down 12%?

We're supposed to believe this is the biggest one-month jump in 29 years?

We're supposed to believe this?

Actual Unemployment Rate Now 11.7%

If you've noticed a new emphasis on the numbers behind the figures in the latest unemployment figures for August released yesterday, you aren't alone.

Nearly every mention I heard of it on the airwaves also mentioned that a paltry 96,000 jobs were added. Reporters also noted that the labor force participation rates reached a new 30-year low. We have about as many people working today as we did thirty years ago.

The amazing part (to me, anyways) is that we're hearing this at all. It's about time we did.

The way the numbers are calculated don't include those who have dropped off the rolls and have given up looking for a job. What's the point? There is nothing out there.

If the unemployment figures were accurate and included the workforce numbers from Obama's first day in office, our actual U-3 rate would be a whopping 11.7%. The U-6 figure would be around 19%.

That's what this administration doesn't want you to know.

From the link...

Have 4.5 million new jobs been created under President Obama, as several speakers in Charlotte have claimed this week?

A fact check shows that under President Obama, the U.S. economy has created a net 415,000 private-sector jobs—less than 0.2 percent of the 155 million-member American workforce. But even that statistic does not tell the full story, since the workforce itself has shrunk dramatically in size since Obama took office. Labor force participation is at 63.5 percent, its lowest level since 1981. In other words, a large chunk of Americans have simply given up looking for work. A significant number are collecting disability insurance instead...

So the next time you hear this "4.5 Million jobs created" line, understand that what you're being told is a lie.

And don't get me started on the inflation figures either. Those numbers are cooked even more worsely that the unemployment numbers. That's running around 9% and will begin to rise dramatically in the coming months.

Brace yourself, Effie. The Progressives aren't through turning us into a third-world country by their irresponsible spending just yet. Remember that we still don't have a Federal budget, and haven't had one during Obama's reign of economic terror, despite there being a law that requires it.

Um, Whee? Unemployment at 8.1%

The latest unemployment figures are out for August. They fell a whopping .2% to 8.1%.

I guess it's time to break out the party favors, pour a glass of champagne and celebrate. Happy days are here again! Except for one teeny, tiny little thing: labor force participation is at a new 30-year low. Both the civilian labor force (154.6 million) and the labor force participation rate (63.5 percent) declined in August. The employment-population ratio, at 58.3 percent, was little changed.

The economy saw an increase of 96,000 jobs. Keep this number in mind. Just to keep up with population growth, we need to add around 240,000 jobs per month.

This, gentle reader, is pathetic. It's a direct result of Obamanomics, that curious blend of Soviet-style command and control economics, coupled with far too many regulations and laws that stifle job and wealth creation. In other words, this is the "new normal" we hear so much about. Despite this administration's attempts to cook the books to make these figures appear to be not quite as bad as they look, the results are the worst "recovery" since WWII.

But wait! There's more!

One thing you won't hear on the nightly news from the MSM is that the July figures were revised downward, "unexpectedly."

But job reports for June and July were revised lower. The June count fell from 64,000 to 45,000, while July’s number came in at 141,000 from an originally reported 163,000.
Despite hopes that job creation would be better than expected, the monthly report fell short of economist expectations that 125,000 jobs were added for the month. The government said private payrolls increased by 103,000, about half the 201,000 that ADP reported Thursday.
 

Oh joy.

But take solace that things are proceeding as planned. President Obama said the private sector is "doing fine."

Here's a video to help you understand how Obamanomics works, courtesy of Professor Glen Reynolds...

Jobless Claims Rise Once More

While the Mainstream Media is focused on the words of Todd Akin, jobless claims rose once more.

There's only one word missing: unexpectedly.

The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits climbed last week to a one-month high, showing little progress in the labor market.
Jobless claims rose by 4,000 for a second week to reach 372,000 in the period ended Aug. 18, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 41 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for 365,000. The four-week moving average, a less volatile measure, increased to 368,000.
 

No wonder all the MSM talking heads don't want to mention the failure of the Obama administration to revive the economy.

Facts, how do they work?

Unemployment Rises to 8.3%. Corrected: Make that 8.254%

Corrected and Updated per The Ministry of Unemployment Information.

As if we needed any more evidence that Progressivism is a destructive force to our economy, today's new unemployment figures show the rate is increasing. It also notes that June's anemic job numbers were revised downward from 80,000 jobs to just 64,000, a little news item that's conveniently omitted from most news outlets.

In other words, Obama's plan is working.

As I've noted before, these numbers are somewhat misleading since they count the total number of Americans in the active workforce, which has been greatly reduced over the course of this recession/depression. If you were to accurately compile this figure, it would be far closer to 11% than the already-awful number of 8.3%. And that's just the U-3 category, the best-case scenario.

The other metric, the U-6 is a far better figure for showing just how bad this administration's economic policies have become.

A measure that takes into account those who have stopped looking for jobs as well as those working part-time for economic reasons has hovered near 15 percent. The so-called "real" unemployment rate, or U-6 measure, is above 20 percent in Nevada and California.

"So-called "real" unemployment rate?" I'm not sure if that's an attempt at snark on the part of CNBC or not. I guess that falls under the "Lies, damned lies, statistics and CNBC reports" category. Anyway, here's their explanation...

The government's most widely publicized unemployment rate measures only those who are out of a job and currently looking for work. It does not count discouraged potential employees who have quit looking, nor those who are underemployed — wanting to work full-time but forced to work part-time. 

For that count, the government releases a separate number called the "U-6," which provides a more complete tally of how many people really are out of work.

The numbers in some cases are startling.

Consider: Nevada's U-6 rate is 22.1 percent, up from just 7.6 percent in 2007. Economically troubled California has a 20.3 percent real rate, while Rhode Island is at 18.3 percent, more than double its 8.3 percent rate in 2007.

In a normal world where everything wasn't backwards, this administration would be changing its policies away from increasing regulation. But, nothing of the sort is coming or should be expected from this group, the majority of whom have never held jobs in the private sector, nor owned their own business.

If you'd like a better big picture of the failure of Obama, here's a not-too-confusing chart that shows job growth for presidents from 1948 through today (shamelessly stolen from Ace).

Notice that itty-bitty space in the lower left-hand corner? See who it belongs to? That tells you everything you need to know about the Obama administration's job performance. It's what those of us out here in the real world call "results."

And they suck.

Real Umenployment at 22%?

I found some more economic news today. I really wish these folks would get on my schedule for Economic Monday.

From the Noisy Room comes this report that the real unemployment rate is even higher than we've been led to believe. Most estimates that dare include the size of the workforce put the current figure at around 11%, which is already pretty bad.

Now, a fellow by the name of John Williams says that this figure is low. Really low. It's more like 22%.




They mention the fact that the method for computing the actual number of unemployed Americans changed in 1994, quite possibly for political reasons. We can't have the current administration looking bad, now can we? As we've seen with this administration, they don't hesitate to concoct new phrases to try to make themselves look good like "Jobs, saved or created." This is a new metric that, rather transparently (at least to those of us who can still speak normal English, not Political NewSpeak), attempts to take credit for saving existing jobs as well as creating new ones.

So, if you're one of the millions of Americans like me who has lost your job or your home, how's that new phraseology working for ya'? Not too well, I'm guessing. It sure hasn't done anything for me.

But I digress.

It's painfully clear that we need a change in direction, away from the big-government overregulation that's currently strangling our economy. What we need is a return to the free market. This article over at PJ Media pretty much says it all, "Want Change? Let's Try Truly Free Markets."

For all of the talk about “change!” in this election, the incoming president’s political party, and perhaps the president-elect himself, seems stubbornly resistant to it.

Joseph Schumpeter famously — and admiringly — wrote about the “creative destruction” inherent in the actions of the free market. I refuse to use the word “capitalism” in this context, because it’s really a Marxist term and doesn’t capture the essence of a system in which individuals and corporations freely exchange goods and services without government interference, if indeed it ever did. When so-called “capitalists” who run the finance, real estate, insurance, and now automotive industries come to Washington, hat in hand, for taxpayer dollars, it’s laughably ludicrous to call them supporters of the free market. Moreover, the term “capitalism” doesn’t capture or connote the importance of property rights and the ability to exchange them freely that are at the base of human liberty in the way that the phrase “free market” does.

In Schumpeter’s view — which is supported abundantly by history — as new technological or financial or cultural innovations arise, or as the societal desires and composition change, so change the markets and business models for existing companies. They have a choice of adapting to that change or, if incapable of doing so for either corporate cultural or other reasons, they can die. They can die, that is, if they don’t have courtiers at the royal court. Then, their options are more varied and they don’t require the necessary and painful change to their ways of doing business that might be required to survive in the new circumstances.

As Instapundit says, read the whole thing.

One final note. You don't need a degree in economics to understand what's at the root of our current economic quagmire: We have a government that has become too big. It sticks it's nose into every corner of our lives, even when there is no need to do so. This is because we've allowed lobbyists and their special interests to dominate what was once the domain of the average citizen.

The corruption of political cronyism is also in play today as never before. The federal bailouts of GM and Chrysler are a prime example. Not too long ago, they would have filed for bankruptcy. This would've allowed them to renegotiate their labor contracts with the UAW. But, since organized labor was a big contributor to the Obama campaign, he felt obligated to support this group with taxpayer dollars instead.

He even went so far as to demonize those who would allow the car companies to file as being guilty of "doing nothing," which is more Leftalk for using the system that is in place, more of that "change" shit we've been fed. We lost billions of dollars by sidestepping this process, with little hope of ever getting that money back any time soon.

I just hope the Romney administration understands what must be done, and gets about the daunting task of doing it as quickly as possible.

There's a lot to be undone in Washington. Let's get to it.

Unemployment Stagnant at 8.3%, But That's Not the Whole Story

They're popping the champagne corks in the White House and in MSM newsrooms across the country today. The new unemployment figures are out and show a whopping decrease from the previous month's figure of 8.3% to the wonderful new number of, um, 8.3%.

Whee?

If all you do is listen to what you're told by the MSM, you'll think that happy days are here again. Nothing could be further from the truth. The bad times are still with us: millions of Americans are still out of work or underemployed (like a certain Boy you all know and love), gas prices are approaching record highs, everything in the grocery store has doubled in price in the past four years, yoots cannot find jobs of any type, the list goes on.

Here's a bit of analysis of the numbers this administration and it's communication division, the Progressive Pravda expect you to believe, courtesy of The American Enterprise Institute.

Even if it were a legit number, the 8.3% February unemployment rate, released today by the Labor Department, would be simply terrible—and unacceptable. It would still extend the longest streak of 8%-plus unemployment since the Great Depression. The U.S. economy hasn’t been below 8% unemployment since Obama took office in January 2009. And back in May 2007, unemployment was just 4.4%. 

But, unfortunately, the true measure of U.S. unemployment is much, much worse. 

1. If the size of the U.S. labor force as a share of the total population was the same as it was when Barack Obama took office—65.7% then vs. 63.9% today—the U-3 unemployment rate would be 10.8%. 

2. But what if you take into the account the aging of the Baby Boomers, which means the labor force participation (LFP) rate should be trending lower. Indeed, it has been doing just that since 2000. Before the Great Recession, the Congressional Budget Office predicted what the LFP would be in 2012, assuming such demographic changes. Using that number, the real unemployment rate would be 10.4%.

(Emphasis theirs)

As Insty would say, read the whole thing, it's not long.